Published Weekly

The MacroScope Weekly Letter

Every week, we break down the most important macro developments through the lens of the regime framework. No noise, no speculation — just a clear read on what growth, inflation, and liquidity are signalling for the portfolio.

Each letter covers the key shifts across the macro regime and global liquidity, and explains how the portfolio is responding and why.

Recent letters

July 12, 2026

SpaceX Joins the Index, Iran Breaks the Truce

Growth posts its strongest print of the year at +0.73 as Reflation / Expanding holds. SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 puts it inside QQQ, one of the book's growth-sleeve holdings, right as Musk sentiment splits the market — a wave of buying meets a backlash into new "non-Elon" ETFs. Separately, Iran formally breaks off the peace framework, sending Brent sharply higher and reopening the oil-driven inflation tail risk.

GrowthReflationIranOil
July 5, 2026

The Book Turns Aggressive

Reflation / Expanding holds into the new month as inflation extends its slide to +0.14. The July 1st sleeve rebalance is the sharpest rotation since the five-sleeve model launched — growth and liquidity sleeve weight roughly doubles to 25% each while defensive and cash are cut by more than half. May PCE confirms the cool-down; the Iran truce shows early cracks.

ReflationPortfolioPCEIran
June 28, 2026

Growth Cools, Liquidity Firms

A rare quiet week: Reflation / Expanding holds for a second week as growth eases to +0.31 after its post-FOMC run and liquidity firms to +0.23. No fresh Hormuz scare, no Fed surprises — just a market digesting Warsh's hawkish dot plot ahead of the June PCE print. The book carries its June weights into month-end.

ReflationLiquidityQuiet Week
June 21, 2026

The Engine Gets an Upgrade

Reflation / Expanding holds as liquidity firms and inflation stays flat. Warsh chairs his first FOMC — a unanimous hold wrapped in a hawkish dot plot that now implies hikes — while a fragile Iran peace is undercut by a renewed Hormuz threat. Plus: this week we shipped the largest model upgrade since launch — a five-sleeve momentum tournament, a new collateral & funding liquidity pillar, and a hysteresis-based classifier.

System UpdateFOMCReflationHormuz
June 14, 2026

4.2%, and a Path to Peace

May CPI prints a three-year-high 4.2% — but it's almost entirely energy, with core at 2.9% and shelter cooling, so the inflation composite has already rolled toward zero. Reflation / Expanding strengthens as liquidity firms, and mediators announce a framework to end the Iran conflict. All eyes on Warsh's first FOMC.

CPIReflationLiquidityOil
June 7, 2026

The Liquidity Upgrade

Liquidity confirms its flip to positive and the overlay turns Expanding for the first time since the energy shock — the regime is now Reflation / Expanding, the most constructive backdrop of the year. The book rotates: gold out of the defensive sleeve, base metals and healthcare in. The S&P prints a record above 7,600, then a sharp tech-led pullback.

LiquidityReflationRotationRecords
May 31, 2026

On the Cusp

Last week of Reflation / Contracting — but only just. Growth and inflation are steady while liquidity firms to the edge of the dead-band, one notch from flipping the overlay to Expanding. Equities press toward record highs on semiconductor leadership even with oil elevated. The month-start rebalance will catch the turn if it confirms.

LiquidityReflationRecords
May 24, 2026

The Warsh Era Begins

Reflation / Contracting holds a fourth week, but liquidity is quietly trying to turn — its first positive print in weeks, still inside the dead-band. Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Fed chair. The book is unchanged, anchored in real assets and gold, with the composite poised for a possible regime upgrade at month-end.

FedWarshReflationLiquidity
May 17, 2026

Growth at a Year-High

Reflation / Contracting for a third week, with growth pushing to a year-high +0.71. Kevin Warsh is confirmed Fed chair in a 54–45 vote, the closest in modern history, as Powell's term expires. April CPI confirms inflation is still accelerating. The book holds, by design.

FedWarshGrowthReflation
May 10, 2026

Reflation Entrenches

Reflation / Contracting holds for a second week and firms up — inflation rising while growth stays strong and liquidity hovers just below zero. The book is unchanged, anchored in commodities, energy, gold, and a fat cash sleeve. Attention turns to next week's Warsh confirmation vote and the April CPI print.

ReflationInflationOil
May 3, 2026

The Regime Flips

The energy shock finally broadens through the inflation composite, moving the regime out of Goldilocks and into Reflation. A divided Fed holds rates in an 8–4 vote — the most dissents since 1992. The portfolio rotates hard toward real assets, gold, and cash.

RegimeReflationFOMCReal Assets
April 26, 2026

Strong Growth, Draining Liquidity

Growth is the strongest all year and inflation is still near zero, so the regime stays Goldilocks — but liquidity has slipped negative, flipping the overlay to Contracting. Brent tops $108 as US–Iran talks unravel and the Strait of Hormuz stays shut. The Fed meets next week.

GoldilocksLiquidityOilFOMC
April 19, 2026

Growth Leads, Liquidity Lags

Growth is at a cycle high while inflation sits on the zero line and liquidity stays mildly negative — Goldilocks / Contracting holds. Markets have stopped reacting to the Iran headlines, the S&P is recovering off its lows, and the April Fed net liquidity drain is a tax-week pattern, not a signal. The FOMC is up next week.

GoldilocksLiquidityFed
April 12, 2026

Two Thresholds at Once

Growth keeps strengthening while inflation sits exactly on zero and liquidity remains negative — Goldilocks / Contracting, with the regime balanced on two thresholds at once. The book is the risk-on allocation carried from the April rebalance. The US–Iran conflict dominates the tape, but the tail risk looks largely priced.

GoldilocksRegimeLiquidity
April 5, 2026

The Overlay Turns

Growth firms even as the jobs and ISM data soften — the composite is carried by the AI capex and distribution pillars — and inflation stays below trend, keeping the regime in Goldilocks. But liquidity crosses below zero, flipping the overlay to Contracting. The book carries its risk-on weights until the May rebalance.

GoldilocksLiquidityJobs
March 29, 2026

Goldilocks Holds

A fourth straight week of Goldilocks / Expanding. ISM manufacturing slips back into contraction and core PCE runs a touch hot, but the inflation composite stays negative as the energy shock stays narrow, and liquidity keeps expanding. The book stays risk-on and globally tilted.

GoldilocksGrowthInflation
March 22, 2026

Hawkish Fed, Narrow Inflation

The FOMC holds and delivers a hawkish dot plot — one cut penciled for 2026 — and Brent settles near $101 on Red Sea disruption. Yet the framework still reads Goldilocks / Expanding: the energy spike isn't broadening, so inflation stays negative and liquidity keeps expanding. The book remains risk-on.

FOMCGoldilocksInflation
March 15, 2026

Goldilocks Through the War

With US and Israeli forces at war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the instinct is to brace for stagflation — but the data reads Goldilocks / Expanding. The energy spike is isolated in one channel while demand and services stay disinflationary, growth is modestly positive, and liquidity is expanding. The book is risk-on, not hiding in cash.

GoldilocksGrowthLiquidityIran

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