Every week, we break down the most important macro developments through the lens of our debt refinancing thesis. No noise, no speculation — just a clear read on what growth, inflation, and liquidity are signalling for the portfolio.
Each letter covers the key shifts across the macro regime, fiscal stress indicators, and global liquidity, and explains how the portfolio is responding.
Composites are quiet — growth, inflation, and liquidity all unchanged — but VAMS has flipped positive on BTC and QQQ, joining gold in the book and essentially completing the rotation the framework has been pointing at. Markets have stopped reacting to the US–Middle East headlines, the S&P is recovering off its lows, crypto is quietly building a base, and the April Fed net liquidity drain is a tax-week pattern, not a signal.
The liquidity composite turns positive for the first time since October, shifting the regime to Reflation / Expanding. Risk assets are back on the table — but the VAMS filter is still holding BTC, QQQ, and gold at zero until momentum confirms.
Reflation holds for the fifth straight week. Growth fades, inflation broadens, liquidity tightens. The VAMS filter keeps the portfolio at 70% SGOV — heavily defensive while the thesis waits for better momentum entry points.
Gold's momentum score turns negative and the VAMS filter cuts it — portfolio moves to 70% SGOV. Only commodities and energy retain positive momentum. The most defensive positioning in over a year.
The FOMC held rates and delivered a hawkish dot plot — only one cut now penciled for 2026. Growth softens as production turns negative, while supply-side inflation builds. The debt refinancing trap tightens.
Growth remains positive but production is barely holding. Supply-side inflation is building through oil and import channels while liquidity contracts. The VAMS filter has cut equities and bitcoin — gold, commodities, and energy carry the risk exposure.
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