From macro data
to a portfolio.

Five pillars follow the economy in the order growth actually happens: financial conditions, business decisions, input acquisition, production and distribution. Together they show whether growth is running above or below trend.

Every indicator is scored against its own history and carries the same weight in the composite, so no single series can dominate the read.

Five channels track price pressure from different sources: demand, pipeline costs, monetary conditions, expectations and services. The composite turns positive when pressure is building and negative when it is fading.

The channels measure how price pressure is changing rather than where prices sit, which is what moves markets.

Five pillars follow money through the global system: central bank balance sheets, private credit, cross-border dollar flows, shadow banking, and collateral and funding markets.

Each series is measured by its rate of change. Markets respond to whether liquidity is growing faster or slower, not to how much of it exists.

Growth and inflation are each read as above or below zero. Together they place the economy in one of four regimes, each favouring a different kind of asset.

Liquidity splits every regime in two. Above zero it reads Expanding, below zero Contracting, which gives eight market states. Each state has fixed weights across five sleeves: growth, liquidity, real assets, defensive and cash.

Expanding liquidity tilts the book toward the growth and liquidity sleeves. Contracting liquidity moves weight into defensive assets and cash.

Each sleeve has a pool of candidate assets. Volatility-adjusted momentum ranks them, and the leaders share the sleeve's weight equally.

Adjusting for volatility rewards steady trends over sharp spikes. There is no on/off switch: the leaders are always held, and how much sits in cash is decided by the regime, not by momentum.

The sleeve weights from the regime and the names chosen by momentum combine into a single model portfolio. Signals update every day. The model portfolio rebalances at the start of each month, and straight away whenever the regime or the liquidity state changes.

Every rule is fixed in advance, so the same conditions always produce the same portfolio. Nothing is left to judgement.