Two layers.
Eight states. Zero discretion.
The regime engine classifies the macro environment from three independent signals — growth, inflation, and liquidity. The momentum layer selects the strongest names within each purpose sleeve. Together they produce a portfolio allocation built to adapt, not predict — signals daily, rebalance monthly.
Measure economic growth
Independent pillars capture different dimensions of economic health — financial conditions, business investment and capex decisions, input acquisition signals, production activity, and distribution and trade flows. Each pillar aggregates multiple indicators into a single composite that reads positive during expansion and negative during contraction.
Indicators within each pillar are grouped by data frequency to prevent high-frequency series from dominating the signal. By blending slow-moving fundamentals with faster market-implied signals, the growth composite responds quickly to turning points without overreacting to noise.
Track inflation momentum
Inflation channels monitor both realized price pressures and forward-looking market expectations. Rather than measuring the level of inflation, the system tracks acceleration — whether inflationary forces are building or fading across demand pressure, pipeline costs, monetary conditions, expectations, and services inflation.
Each channel isolates a distinct transmission mechanism — from excess demand and producer costs to monetary policy stance and sticky services prices. The result is a composite that turns positive when inflation is accelerating and negative when it is cooling.
Gauge global liquidity
Liquidity pillars track the flow of money through the global financial system: central bank balance sheets, private sector credit creation, cross-border dollar liquidity, shadow banking and non-bank financial activity, and stress in the collateral and funding markets. The system measures whether the global money supply is expanding or contracting at the margin — a critical input to understanding whether risk assets face a tailwind or headwind.
The impulse signal — rate of change across each pillar — determines the liquidity overlay: Expanding or Contracting. This modifier shifts the sleeve mix toward risk when liquidity is supportive and toward safety when it isn't, creating eight distinct allocation postures across the four regimes.
Classify the macro regime
The growth and inflation composites interact to classify the macro environment into one of four regimes. The liquidity state acts as a modifier, creating eight distinct market states — each with a deliberate allocation posture built into the system in advance, with no discretion at classification time.
Growth rising, inflation contained
Growth rising, inflation accelerating
Growth falling, inflation elevated
Growth falling, inflation cooling
Rank each sleeve with vol-adjusted momentum
Each regime assigns weight to five purpose sleeves — growth, liquidity, real assets, defensive, and cash. Inside every sleeve, a volatility-adjusted momentum score ranks the candidate assets. The tournament holds the top two names, splitting the sleeve's weight equally between them. This lets the portfolio hold whatever is actually leading within each role — not what led before.
The momentum signal spans multiple timeframes (42, 63, and 126 trading days) to avoid being whipsawed by short-term noise. Assets win the tournament when they are trending on a risk-adjusted basis. The system doesn't pick winners — it confirms them by a rule that was fixed in advance.
Generate the portfolio signal
The regime and liquidity state set the sleeve mix — growth equity in Goldilocks, real assets in Reflation and Stagflation, defensives and cash in contractions and deflation — and the momentum tournament fills each sleeve with its two strongest names. The signals refresh daily; the portfolio rebalances monthly, or when a regime shift triggers a change.
The rules are fixed in advance: the same regime always produces the same sleeve weights, and the same momentum ranking always picks the same names. This anti-overfitting discipline means the system is built to work going forward — not fitted to look good in a backtest. Low turnover by design keeps trading costs and taxes down.
See the system in action
Explore every pillar, channel, composite, and regime signal — updated daily. Free tier available, no card required.
Get started for free