From macro data
to portfolio signal
MacroScope measures three forces that drive asset prices — growth, inflation, and liquidity — and combines them into a regime-based allocation system with a built-in momentum safety layer.
Measure economic growth
Five independent pillars capture different dimensions of economic health — financial conditions, business investment and capex decisions, input acquisition signals, production activity, and distribution and trade flows. Each pillar aggregates multiple indicators, normalized to a common scale and combined into a single growth composite that reads positive during expansion and negative during contraction.
Indicators within each pillar are grouped by data frequency to prevent high-frequency series from dominating the signal. By blending slow-moving fundamentals with faster market-implied signals, the growth composite responds quickly to turning points without overreacting to noise.
Track inflation momentum
Six inflation channels monitor both realized price pressures and forward-looking market expectations. Rather than measuring the level of inflation, the system tracks acceleration — whether inflationary forces are building or fading across demand pressure, pipeline costs, monetary conditions, expectations, import prices, and services inflation.
Each channel isolates a distinct transmission mechanism — from excess demand and producer costs to monetary policy stance and sticky services prices. The result is a composite that turns positive when inflation is accelerating and negative when it is cooling.
Gauge global liquidity
Five liquidity pillars track the flow of money through the global financial system: central bank balance sheets, private sector credit creation, cross-border FX credit, shadow banking and non-bank financial activity, and collateral and funding markets.
Inspired by institutional global liquidity research, the system measures the rate of change across each pillar — whether the global money supply is expanding or contracting at the margin. This impulse signal determines whether risk assets receive a tailwind or face headwinds.
Classify the macro regime
The growth and inflation composites interact to classify the macro environment into one of four regimes. The liquidity state then acts as a modifier, creating eight distinct market conditions that each call for a different portfolio posture.
Strong growth, low inflation
Growth with rising inflation
Weak growth, high inflation
Weak growth, falling inflation
Apply volatility-adjusted momentum
Before capital is deployed, each asset passes through a volatility-adjusted momentum filter. This measures risk-adjusted returns across multiple timeframes — short, medium, and long — and combines them into a single score.
When an asset's momentum score turns negative, its allocation is automatically scaled back and moved to cash. This acts as a circuit breaker: the regime may call for a position, but if the asset is in freefall, the system steps aside until conditions stabilize. It adds a layer of tactical safety on top of the strategic regime allocation.
Generate the portfolio signal
Each regime maps to a specific portfolio allocation across equities, gold, and digital assets. Expanding liquidity tilts toward more aggressive positioning — adding growth-oriented equities and alternative stores of value. Contracting liquidity favors defensive allocations.
The result is a daily portfolio signal: exact asset weights, updated as the macro environment evolves. No discretionary overrides, no narrative bias — just a systematic translation of macro data into portfolio positioning.
See the system in action
Explore every pillar, channel, composite, and regime signal — updated daily. Free tier available, no card required.
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