Regime-driven
macro analysis.
Multi-pillar growth, inflation, and liquidity composites feed into a 4-regime classifier that drives dynamic portfolio allocation.
The Debt Refinancing Economy
US debt is the economy's dominant constraint. Over 30% rolls every 12 months, so elevated rates compound the interest burden faster than GDP grows — debt/GDP expands on autopilot.
The only way out is to suppress real rates: financial repression, yield curve control, or monetization. Each debases fiat savings.
That's why the portfolio anchors permanent positions in gold (debasement hedge) and bitcoin (liquidity upside). The regime model tilts everything else around that core.
The two indicators below track whether the thesis is playing out in real time.
Treasury Maturity Wall
Stacked bar chart showing the volume of US Treasury securities maturing each month over the next 12 months, broken down by Bills, Notes, and Bonds. When a large share of debt matures in the near term, refinancing pressure forces the Treasury to issue at prevailing rates — constraining fiscal flexibility.
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Debt / GDP Trajectory
Tracks federal debt as a percentage of GDP over time. A rising debt/GDP ratio signals that the debt burden is self-compounding — the government borrows more than it grows, creating a structural need for financial repression and debasement.
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Treasury Maturity Wall
PremiumStacked bar chart showing the volume of US Treasury securities maturing each month over the next 12 months, broken down by Bills, Notes, and Bonds. When a large share of debt matures in the near term, refinancing pressure forces the Treasury to issue at prevailing rates — constraining fiscal flexibility.
Sign in to view chart
Debt / GDP Trajectory
PremiumTracks federal debt as a percentage of GDP over time. A rising debt/GDP ratio signals that the debt burden is self-compounding — the government borrows more than it grows, creating a structural need for financial repression and debasement.
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