Research Disclosures

1. Who produces this research

All models, model outputs and weekly letters are produced by MacroScope, operated from Sweden. Questions about this research can be sent to support@macroscopeapp.com.

2. What the model outputs are

The dashboard publishes the output of a rules-based model. It describes a hypothetical model portfolio, not an account that anyone manages for you.

• Pillar, channel and composite scores are normalized readings of macro data. Positive means above trend, negative means below trend.
• The regime is the model's classification of the current macro environment from those scores.
• Model holdings and weights are the target weights the model portfolio holds under its rules. They are the same for every subscriber and are not sized for anyone's situation.
• Momentum scores rank candidate assets within each sleeve. A high score is a description of recent trend, not a forecast or a price target.

The model portfolio rebalances at the start of each month and when the regime or liquidity state changes. Its holdings can change at any time. MacroScope does not publish price targets, entry points or stop levels.

3. When outputs are produced

Model outputs are regenerated automatically several times a day from the data available at that moment, and each holdings panel shows the date of the data it is based on. Outputs can change between updates as new data is released or revised. Weekly letters reflect data as of the date stated at the end of each letter and are not updated afterwards.

4. Data sources and methodology

The models use public macroeconomic data from the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and other official sources (largely via FRED), plus publicly available daily market prices. The full method is described on the methodology page and on each model card. Data can be late, revised or wrong, and we do not guarantee its accuracy.

5. Facts, model output and opinion

The dashboard shows model output only. The weekly letters combine three things, and we label them so they can be told apart: reported facts and data (with their source), model output (the regime, scores and the model portfolio's holdings), and the author's own opinion, written as "we think" or "our view". Opinions in the letters are commentary. They are not part of the model, they can disagree with it, and they are not recommendations to act.

6. Simulated performance

Performance figures for the model portfolio (CAGR, Sharpe, Calmar, maximum drawdown and the equity curve) come from a backtest that starts in mid 2020 and are compared with buying and holding the S&P 500 over the same period.

• They are simulated, not actual results. No money was traded to produce them.
• The backtest applies the current rules to the whole period. The rules were designed and revised with that history in view, so the results benefit from hindsight and likely overstate what the model would have achieved in real time.
• An assumed transaction cost is deducted at each rebalance. Taxes, bid and ask spreads, currency effects and real execution prices are not reflected.
• Simulated results over a few years say little about future results, which may be materially worse, including losses.

7. Main risks and limitations

• The regime can be misclassified, or change after a move has already happened.
• Momentum strategies can suffer sharp losses when trends reverse.
• The model portfolio holds a small number of assets, so it is concentrated.
• Some candidate assets, such as Bitcoin, commodities and leveraged credit, are highly volatile.
• Errors in data or code can produce wrong outputs.

8. Conflicts of interest

• MacroScope earns its revenue from subscriptions. It receives no payment from any issuer, fund provider, exchange or broker for covering, including or ranking an asset.
• The author may personally hold, buy or sell assets that the model portfolio holds or that the letters discuss, at any time.
• The author's own trading is independent of the model and can differ from it, including holding assets the model does not hold or taking opposite positions.

9. Record of past outputs

The Asset Holdings chart on the models page shows the model portfolio's weights for every day of the backtest, and the weekly letter archive records each published change. Material changes to the model rules are announced in the weekly letter, and simulated performance is recalculated under the new rules.

10. Not financial advice

Nothing on MacroScope is financial advice or a personal recommendation. Read the full disclaimer in our Terms of Service.